My delayed Friday prediction

This last week was the last opportunity for either 7th District candidate to 1. change voter’s minds. 2. charge them up to vote.
I’ve done a few things. I don’t know if Roger has.

I’ve put ads in all the local tabloids. I did not put them in the Duluth News Tribune or the Budgeteer. Two items showed up in the Trib which were even better. My letter to the editor showed up. I used it to twit the Trib for its endorsement of Roger. Better and unanticipated was another letter to the editor from Mike Jaros endorsing me. One letter showed up endorsing Roger. More will show up, I’m sure before Tuesday. [I was wrong. No more endorsements] Will they make a difference? I doubt it. The Jaros letter was gold. Mine may have been silver. Roger’s was bronze.

Roger has placed ads in the same publications I have. They are both smaller and generic messages – fighting for Duluth. Mine attack Roger. Roger has the Hobson’s choice of ignoring them and lending them credence or refuting them and lending them attention. He has chosen the former course.

Roger has money to spend. If the last report is correct he should be sitting on about $15,000 to my $2,000. He may not be tapping into it to preserve it for what he figures will be a bruising general election? Its unlikely that a Republican will seriously challenge Roger so that is a silly gamble. It could also be that Roger does not want so spend money because raising it is proving so much harder this year. The Governor has redacted most of the state tax check off money and donors are no longer being reimbursed for donations up to $50 as in years past.

One omission by his campaign strikes me as a sign of something else. Both of us were asked by the Hillsider Newspaper why we should be elected. Roger did not answer the question. Its absence was very noticible. It was a freebie and would have cost him nothing. Not replying suggests to me that he felt the ten minutes it would have taken him to write it was a waste of time. Why might it have been a waste? Because it was too late to persuade folks he was the man for the job? Maybe. If it was simply forgetfulness that is a very bad sign of disorganization.

For my part I’ve not done much either. Had my Father in law’s visit not coincided with this last week I would have worked much harder and spent more money. As that would have made me a poor host I limited myself to writing a few blog posts. I’ve got 70 lawnsigns left and given a day I could have put them up by myself. As I’ve said before it won’t be lawnsigns that win the election. Besides, Roger doesn’t seem to have any more signs up than me.

I’ve written this on Friday night. I won’t post it until late Monday [early Tuesday now] because this will serve as my prediction. I do not wish it to motivate Roger to do more work. At present he has put no television advertising on air. [He has put at least one ad on since I wrote this] Neither have I although two weeks ago that was my plan. My time and resources are limited. Roger’s are not. I suspect Roger is paralyzed.

As of this evening I believe I will win the primary. I don’t really expect a lot of Republicans to come out to vote for me. Oh, a few old friends will, but I’ve not attempted to organize anything although all my ads remind voters that they can cross parties to vote in Minnesota primaries. That’s because I wan’t everyone to vote in the DFL primary for me.

I hope enough folks who are mad about the Red Plan will come out to vote that they will outnumber traditional Democrats who want to support the official Democrat. Even if such Democrats out numbered Democrats angry about the Red Plan I also have Mike Jaros’ endorsement. Mike’s lone endorsement outranks the 65 out of 75 people who supported Roger at the endorsing convention.

Roger may have paid for some polling that gives him some insight into what will happen. If he’s way ahead of me in the polls that won’t guarantee that his supporters will be more likely to come out to vote my possibly smaller numbers. Happy people won’t be voting and this primary is taking place at the zenith of public unhappiness on a whole raft of issues above and beyond the Red Plan. This will benefit outsiders not insiders.

I won’t be broken hearted if I lose. I never thought I’d run for political office again. Its true that I didn’t throw away my old lawnsigns but I never throw anything away. In some ways I’ll be relieved if I lose. The reason? I have such high expectations of what I want to accomplish in the legislature that I’m not looking forward to putting myself under my so much pressure.

Bottom line prediction. I think I’ll win.

Note: brackets [] denote additions written since Friday

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