Demography fail

I was sent this article by a Twin Cities school watcher. The story explains how demographer Hazel Reinhardt, who was wildly optimistic about the Duluth Schools enrollment growth after the Red Plan, did the same disservice to the St. Paul Schools.

Art Johnston who also read this story commented:

In 2006, she predicted that the Duluth Schools would have a low of 9,200 students in 2013, and then it would increase to 9,500 in 2017.

Well, we currently have 8150 students. Not only did she miss her mark by about 1400 students, this is the lowest number of students that I’ve been able to find for in Duluth.

In 1885, the oldest data I can find, Duluth schools had 8,600 students!

–ART