“Big Trump” or “Little Trump?”

My Buddy sent me this thoughtful appraisal of how the stock market in the US is taking Donald Trump in stride. The Atlantic column takes no stand on Trump. It just lays out the possibilities for Trump either cratering our economy or being irrelevant. Its not very long.

My guess is that he will hurt significantly especially in the huge swath of Red States that depend on Agriculture. Foreign travel is down too. Foreigners have always been hyper sensitive to the idea that the US is the wild west with gunfights breaking out everywhere. The news from my old Homestate, Kansas, today won’t help that perception. That story is already running on Indian media.

I’ve read enough stories that suggest doom and gloom in various economic quarters that I find the idea of a “little Trump” imprint on the economy wishful thinking. Maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part.

“The Little Trump hypothesis regards these fears and declares: “meh.” Instead, it posits that the president will be a loud yet minor figure, sound and fury signifying nothing; a wannabe superhero hemmed in by the limited powers of the executive branch. Rather than rule like a populist demagogue, he will mostly sign bills written by his pro-business staffers and approved by a pro-business Congress. There are extremely smart people who believe in each hypothesis. But the theories are mutually exclusive. They cannot both be true. No matter what happens in the next few years, a lot of people are already wrong about Donald Trump.”