It was a seasonable 46 degrees when Claudia and I headed out to vote at 7:30 AM. I was the 24th voter at our precinct and the polling place was teeming with voters. It should be a good turn out. Frank sent me yesterday’s forecast by the Cook Report which downplayed the recent reports that the Republicans are “coming home” and tightening the race:
“All Monday there was considerable talk that the national picture had
suddenly changed and that there was a significant tightening in the
election. This was based in part on two national polls that showed the
generic congressional ballot test having tightened to four (Pew) and six
(ABC/Wash Post) points.
Seven national polls have been conducted since Wednesday, November 1.
They give Democrats an average lead of 11.6 percentage points, larger
than any party has had going into an Election Day in memory. Even if you
knock five points off of it, it’s 6.6 percentage points, bigger than the
advantage that Republicans had going into 1994.
Furthermore, there is no evidence of a trend in the generic ballot test.
In chronological order of interviewing (using the midpoint of field
dates), the margins were: 15 points (Time 11/1-3), 6 points (ABC/Wash
Post), 4 points (Pew), 7 points (Gallup), 16 points (Newsweek), 20
points (CNN) and 13 points (Fox).”
I’ll be watching the new and improved paperless ballot voting machines. Already there are reports of some serious snafus with them in several states. Something like 36% of all ballots cast this year will not have paper backup.
It won’t be pretty if the US has another election debacle like those of 2000 and 2004.